Revisions to the NJ State Implementation Plan for the Attainment and Maintenance of the One-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard:
New Jersey 1996 Actual Emission Inventory and Rate of Progress (ROP) Plans

BACKGROUND:
Ozone, a major constituent in smog, is produced by complex chemical reactions when its precursors, volatile organic compounds and (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) react in the presence of sunlight in the lower atmosphere (troposphere). The chemical reactions that create ozone take place while the pollutants are being blown through the air by wind, or otherwise transported. Therefore ozone is a regional as well as a local problem. Despite substantial effort by federal and state government, elevated levels of ozone are and remain a threat to public health.

Rate of Progress (ROP) Plan:
The Federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 established a comprehensive program for addressing the ozone problem. Specifically, 42 U.S.C. §7511a(c)(2)(B) calls for states with one-hour ozone non-attainment areas with air quality classified as serious, severe or extreme to reduce their VOC emissions by 3 percent of the 1990 baseline VOC emission level averaged over each consecutive three (3) year period beginning in 1990 until the attainment date. The attainment date is 2005 for the Philadelphia/Wilmington/ Trenton area and 2007 for the Northern New Jersey/New York City/Long Island area. The State has already successfully met the 1996 15 percent and 1999 24 percent ROP goals. The SIP submittal containing the State's 15 percent and 24 percent plans was referred to as the State's Phase I Ozone SIP.

This SIP revision contains the remaining ROP plans for each milestone year up to and including the attainment years for each applicable non-attainment area, i.e., 2002 and 2005 for the Philadelphia/Wilmington/Trenton area and 2002, 2005, and 2007 for the Northern New Jersey/New York City/Long Island area. The emissions projections in the document demonstrate that, with already adopted control measures, the State has more than enough VOC emission reductions and allowable NOx substitution emission reductions benefits to meet the ROP target reductions. Detailed information on inventory projections by emission source categories is found in Appendix II.

Relationships Between this ROP SIP and the State's Previous Attainment Demonstration SIP:
On August 31, 1998, New Jersey submitted to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) a SIP revision containing a demonstration of attainment of the one-hour ozone NAAQS for the Northern New Jersey/New York City/Long Island and Philadelphia/Wilmington/Trenton non-attainment areas. This attainment demonstration submittal was referred to as the State's Phase II Ozone SIP. The Phase II Ozone SIP submittal provided for an attainment demonstration as required by 42 U.S.C. §7511a(c)(2)(A) of the Clean Air Act. That SIP revision utilized emission projections to predict future ozone concentrations, and demonstrate attainment with the ozone standard by the attainment dates. Subsequently, the State addressed additional USEPA requirements regarding the attainment demonstration for the one-hour NAAQS for ozone.

The purpose of the ROP submittal is to demonstrate steady, incremental progress (3 percent of the 1990 VOC baseline emission level averaged over each consecutive 3 year period) leading towards the ultimate goal of attainment. The purpose of the attainment demonstration, however, was to assess the overall emission reductions necessary to actually achieve attainment, which could be greater than or less than the required ROP reductions. The control measures included in this ROP SIP are consistent with the control measures in the attainment demonstration, and the emission projections herein show greater reductions than those needed to meet ROP requirements. Therefore, attaining the one-hour ozone standard in New Jersey is predicted to require emission reductions that exceed ROP requirements.

The 1996 Inventory:
The Clean Air Act also requires at 42 U.S.C. 2182(a) that States with non-attainment areas prepare current and accurate periodic emission inventories every three years, using actual reported economic, fuel use and other relevant data for that year. These inventories are expected to improve upon inventory estimates where predicted, as opposed to available actual data, was used. This SIP revision also contains estimates of actual emissions for the year 1996. Since this inventory is considered to be a better estimate of emissions than that predicted in the State's Phase I Ozone SIP, it was used herein as the starting point for the 2002, 2005, and 2007 inventory projections for certain emission source categories. Detailed information on the 1996 inventory is contained in Appendix I.

Conformity:
In addition to demonstrating compliance with ROP requirements, this SIP revision proposes new transportation conformity budgets. To develop these new budgets, revised estimates of on-road emissions have been made incorporating newer 1999 vehicle registration data that was used for allocating vehicle miles traveled by vehicle class, and within each class, by vehicle age. In addition, the NOx benefits from Phase II of the Reformulated Gasoline Program, the VOC and NOx benefits from the Tier II Motor Vehicle Standard/Low Sulfur Gasoline Program, and the effects of heavy duty diesel (HDD) defeat devices that disengage the engine's emission control system during highway driving - and new HDD engine standards have been incorporated into the on-road emission estimates.

The SIP revision also contains a revised general conformity budget for McGuire Air Force Base.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS:  For additional help in getting access to the DEP's proposals or for information about what they mean, call the NJDEP, Bureau of Air Quality Planning at (609) 292-6722.