Mar-10-11 Final Data Shows Private Sector Employment Grew in 2010 While Public Sector Employment Declined Employment Falls in January; Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 9.1 Percent
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FINAL EMPLOYMENT DATA FOR 2010
Results of the annual benchmarking adjustment process — conducted by every state each year at this time — showed that New Jersey employers shed a seasonally adjusted total of 17,000 jobs over the year, December 2009 to December 2010. The revised data shows that private sector employers added jobs in 2010.
The majority of the adjustment resulted from an over-estimation of public sector losses and an under-estimation of private sector jobs in 2010. Preliminary estimates had indicated a loss of 29,100 public sector jobs while revised data show the loss to be 22,200. Revised data for the private sector show an over-the-year gain of 5,200 jobs rather than the preliminary estimated drop of 1,600 in 2010 .The New Jersey employment picture improved significantly in 2010 in comparison with 2009 when job loss totaled 113,500 (loss of 117,700 jobs in the private sector, gain of 4,200 public sector jobs).
Previously released nonfarm employment estimates, including those for 2010, have been revised to new employment benchmarks as required annually by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The process re-anchors monthly, sample-based survey estimates to full-universe counts of employment, primarily derived from records of the unemployment insurance tax system. Overall, this year’s benchmark revision (based on unadjusted March 2010 tax data, the month which is used to re-anchor the estimates) was -0.1 percent, the smallest revision since 2006. In comparison, national employment estimates for 2010 had a revision of -0.3 percent.
Six of ten private industry sectors of the New Jersey economy lost jobs during 2010. The largest losses were recorded in the construction (-5,400 jobs), information (-3,700), and manufacturing (-3,400) supersectors. Industry sectors that added jobs over the year included education and health services (+7,400), professional and business services (+6,400), financial activities (+5,700) and leisure and hospitality (+1,000). The public sector job loss of 22,200 was mainly a result of separations at the local government (-19,600) level as counties, municipalities and local school boards pared payrolls due to budget considerations. State government employment was lower by 2,600 over the year.
Labor force estimates for New Jersey were also revised for 2010. For the year, revised unemployment averaged 9.5 percent (U.S. rate = 9.6%) and trended steadily lower over the year, from a high of 9.8 percent in January to a low of 9.1 percent in December.
JANUARY 2011 ESTIMATES
For the most recent month, January 2011, nonfarm wage and salary preliminary estimates show that employment decreased by 13,000 jobs to reach a seasonally adjusted level of 3,831,700. The state’s preliminary unemployment rate was unchanged in January at 9.1 percent, just above the U.S. rate of 9.0 percent. Estimates for February will be released on March 24, 2011.
In January, employment losses were recorded in both the private (-7,100 jobs) and public sectors (-5,900) of the New Jersey economy. The largest January employment loss occurred in the professional and business services (-4,000) industry sector as losses in the administrative support/waste management component (-5,300) overshadowed a gain in the professional, scientific and technical services (+1,900) segment. Other industry sectors with notable job loss included manufacturing (-1,800), education and health services (-1,400), other services (-1,400), leisure and hospitality (-1,300) and construction (-1,100). Only one industry sector recorded a gain, trade, transportation and utilities (+4,400) with all of the job gain in retail trade (+6,700).
Public sector employment in January was lower by 5,900 as losses at the state (-3,800) and local (-2,600) government levels outpaced a small gain in federal employment (+500).
Over the month, the unadjusted workweek for manufacturing workers decreased by -0.6 to 39.7 hours, average hourly earnings increased by $0.09 to $19.06 and weekly earnings were down by -$7.81 to $756.68. Compared with January of last year, the unadjusted workweek was lower by -2.1 hour, average hourly earnings increased by $1.01 and weekly earnings were higher by $2.19.
Press Release Tables Note:
Estimates of industry employment and unemployment levels are arrived at through the use of two different monthly surveys.
Industry employment data are derived through the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, a monthly survey of business establishments conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the US Department of Labor, which provides estimates of employment, hours, and earnings data broken down by industry for the nation as a whole, all states, and most major metropolitan areas (often referred to as the “establishment” survey).
Through a Federal-State cooperative endeavor, the employment security agency in each state analyzes and publishes industry employment data reports detailing the CES data compiled by BLS, using concepts, definitions, and technical procedures prescribed by BLS.
Resident employment and unemployment data are mainly derived from the New Jersey portion of the national Current Population Survey (CPS), a household survey conducted each month by the US Census Bureau under contract with BLS, which provides input to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program (often referred to as the “household” survey).
Through a Federal-State cooperative endeavor, the employment security agency of each state analyzes and publishes reports detailing the LAUS data compiled by BLS using concepts, definitions, and technical procedures prescribed by BLS.
Both industry and household estimates are revised each month based on additional information from updated survey reports compiled by BLS. In addition, these estimates are benchmarked (revised) annually based on actual counts from New Jersey’s Unemployment
Compensation Law administrative records and other data.
Benchmark Technical Notes:
Nonfarm Employment (Current Employment Statistics Survey)
Nonfarm employment estimates are developed each month from the Current Employment
Statistics (CES) survey, a sample of approximately 6,000 employers in New Jersey. Previously released nonfarm employment estimates, including those for 2010, have been revised to new employment benchmarks required annually by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The process re-anchors monthly sample-based survey estimates to full-universe counts of employment through the third quarter of 2010, primarily derived from records of the unemployment insurance tax system. The universe count of employment is derived from the records of over 260,000 New Jersey employing establishments.
As a result of the benchmark process, the estimated level of not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in New Jersey was revised downward by -0.1 percent for the benchmark reference month of March 2010.
Benchmark revisions over the past ten years have averaged plus or minus 0.8 percent. Nationally, nonfarm employment estimates for 2010 were revised downward by -0.3 percent.
Revised data for April 2010 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark level, as well as updated net business birth/death model adjustments and new seasonal adjustment factors. The November and December 2010 revisions also reflect the routine incorporation of additional sample receipts into the November final and December preliminary estimates.
Unadjusted nonfarm wage and salary employment data have been revised back to 2008 while seasonally adjusted data have been updated back to 2006. In addition, BLS has introduced the extension of seasonally adjusted data for some sector series back to 1990. This change has resulted in minor revisions to higher level summary data. For further information on these procedures go to http://www.bls.gov/sae/cesprocs.htm.
Labor Force/Unemployment
Current monthly resident labor force, employment and unemployment estimates are developed using a modeling procedure based on statistical regression techniques. The procedure uses the following variables: (1) responses to the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), conducted as a joint effort of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of about 1,200 households in New Jersey; (2) unemployment insurance claimant data; and (3) estimates of nonfarm wage and salary employment obtained from the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly survey of a sample of employers.
For annual benchmarking processing, labor force data for New Jersey was revised to incorporate updated inputs, updated population controls, re-estimation of models and adjustment to new division and national controls. Furthermore, BLS has introduced a long-run trend smoothing procedure to seasonally adjusted labor force data back to January 1976. This procedure reduces monthly volatility in the estimates and addresses the long-standing issue related to end-of-year revisions. For more information on this topic, please visit www.bls.gov/lau/lassaqa.htm.
The not seasonally adjusted labor force data was revised back to 2006.
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